Poland is the only country from the new EU members which has no official date for introducing the euro. Dr. Pavel Samiski, a member of the board of directors of the Polish National Bank is one of the people who are preparing a report about the attitudes of the Poles towards adopting of the euro, about the economical and political situation in Poland and the measures to be taken, so that Poland meets the criteria for joining the euro zone. The report will be ready by the end of the year and based on it will be projected the approximate date when Poland will be ready to adopt the euro.

According to the report, 12% of the Poles work with euros at the moment and only 4% of them with dollars. Only in Hungary this percentage is lower, while in the other Central and Eastern EU countries, this percentage is much higher. Most of the Poles use the euro to carry out international payments, and others - for their own use. Since September 2004 till September 2007 the percentage of the Pole not wishing to adopt the euro as national currency (from 49% to 36%) had decreased sharply, while the percentage of fans of the euro had increased with the same values. According to some researches, these changes are due the satisfaction of the Poles from the several years' long membership in the Union.

Is it possible that the euro is adopted without shock?

According to the theory of optimal currency areas, the benefits of monetary integration are greater when the countries going to join the currency union, are better integrated into economic links with the community. This means that countries must maintain close trade relations with the EU and continuous financial relationships. On the other hand, the costs of adopting the euro in asymmetric countries are increasing in their business cycle, and more inflexible economies are in an active period of economic adjustment to asymmetric shock. The parties which have a high level of economic integration and sync business cycle or complex flexibility (in terms of prices, labor wages and other factors) will appreciate that the advantages of a single European currency will facilitate them. The key towards successful economic integration is in two approaches: synchronization of business environment of Poland and that of EU and strengthening of trade between the country and the other European states. The success of Poland is due to the concentration at this timing, with which it goes in this respect ahead of the Czech Republic and Hungary. It is determined that timing of business cycle minimizes the cost of joining the monetary community.

The results of the report of the Polish National Bank demonstrate that:

* There are two types of business cycles in Poland and the euro zone: 6-7 years business and 3 years long.

* In the period 1995-2007 the level of synchronization in the business cycle between Poland and the euro is moderate and stable over time.

* In the same period, the business cycles in Poland are well-sync with those of the euro compared with those of the European Committee for consultation on economy. At the same time, it is weakly synced with those of the other countries from the euro zone.

* With the enlargement of the euro area is expected an increase in cyclical convergence obligations, which suggest an increase in trade integration during the start of the adoption of the euro in Poland.

The main benefits to Poland from the adoption of euro are:

Direct benefits

* Costs, associated with exchange rate of zloty / euro in transactions will be eliminated

* Risk of the difference in exchange rates and the subsequent deterioration in the level of interest will be eliminated

Long-term benefits

* Investment growth

* Increasing of available resources and reducing capital expenditures

* Reducing macroeconomic risk in the country (no threat of currency risks)

* Integration of financial markets

* Improving competitiveness

Major drawbacks of adopting the euro

Withdrawal from independent interest policy

* Persistent functions of the independent monetary policy cannot be used for long

* With dependent monetary policy alternative stabilizing mechanisms are needed to take over of asymmetric shocks.

Floating exchange value

* Stabilizing function of exchange value is annulled but

* Floating exchange value may be a stabilizer and a source of concern

Negatives of the adoption of the euro depend on the effectiveness of alternative adapt mechanisms in the labor market and fiscal policy (as the range of asymmetric shocks may be reduced depending on the flexibility of the labor market and the fiscal policy).

Currently, Poland has nearly covered fiscal criteria for adopting the euro and its rate of inflation are stable - 3.4%. The average amount of long-term interest rate is 5.59 %. National debt of the country this year is 44.2%, and forecasts for 2010 indicate that it will be 42.3% of the gross domestic product.

Key areas of incompatibility with the requirements are related to the timing of Polish legislation and

* Problems with the independence of the Central Bank of Poland
* Prohibition of monetary funding
* Objective monetary policy

Major regulators for adjustment

These are a few key mechanisms - the Constitution of Poland, the actions of the Polish National Bank, the Law of Banking Guarantee Fund.

By the end of 2011, according to estimates of the Central Bank, Poland will have significantly reduced its budget deficit and will have been able to fully cover the convergence criteria for entry into the euro zone. Most researchers of the situation define 2012 as the most suitable for adopting the euro as well as 2013. The forecast is that by then Poland will be ready to change its national currency.

The confidence of the Poles is due to intensive and secure stabilization of their monetary unit, as in the end of 2004 - 4.10 zloty equaled 1 euro, but by the end of this year the euro will be exchanged for 3.40 zloty. Polish experts, however, are unanimous that everyone has to agree with the date of adoption, in order to escape discrepancies. Probably because of this, most of the new EU members like Czech Republic, Hungary and others which even had in advance two dates for adoption of the euro, all failed to comply with any of them, that's why the position of Poland without an official date is logical and thought over.

LAST CONCLUSIONS

Fiscal criteria will be fully covered by Poland till the end of 2008

Inflation will decrease and its upper limit during 2009-2010 will be crucial, therefore increasing the likelihood of meeting the criteria for price stability will be a long-term priority for Poland, also the global chaos on the financial market will gradually disappear. Then, the earliest possible date for adoption of the country in the so called Currency course mechanism II is no earlier than 2009, and the adoption of the euro in Poland is at the end of 2012.

For Bulgaria

Dr.Samiski is of the opinion that Bulgaria has made significant progress in the last 15 years. "The feedback from the outside is that you have great achievements. Furthermore, you have the financial support of the EU, which is good for the modernization of economy. Of course, there are many points on which you can pay more attention such as the high level of inflation, reaching 13% and the deficit, which is more than 20%. Despite this, the foreign investments in the country will be increased. It is common that deficit and inflation has high values, it is like this also in the other developing new EU members. I do not see any special differences between the situation in Bulgaria and the situation in other EU member states.